Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

The type of non-fiction book that could convey the information it wishes to convey in 10 pages. In fact, it partly does that via its appendix. Also the type of non-fiction book that is enjoyable even though the information density is not super high - Philip Tetlock weaves a compelling tale.

The term superforecaster might be read as implying that there is some form of a discontinuity between normal forecasters and these better superforecasters. As I understand it, this is not the case - they are just the good tail of the distribution.

Superforecasters are smart (but not necessarily geniuses), comfortable with numbers (but not necessarily math whizzes), and well-informed about the world (they might read the NYTimes, but it’s not like they need to have three PhDs). Most importantly, they have a growth mindset, see beliefs as something to be updated, not protected and display some degree of immunity to cognitive biases.

The appendix provides guidelines to improving at forecasting, but (and?) the book also emphasizes that forecasting is a skill - one gets better the more one does it, assuming clear, timely feedback is available.